Mind the Gap: An Estimation of the Renewable Energy Needed to Meet New York’s Clean Energy Mandates
About this Report
Prepared by Strategen Consulting Inc., Mind the Gap: An Estimation of the Renewable Energy Needed to Meet New York’s Clean Energy Mandates is a landmark report sponsored by the Public Power New York Coalition (PPNY) that compares the difference between the renewable energy (RE) generation that can be expected under the current pace of deployment and the RE generation that will be necessary for New York (NY) to meet the 70% RE by 2030 goal in order to determine the gap that will need to be filled with new strategies for RE deployment.
NY’s clean energy and emissions reduction goals are among the most aggressive in the country. The 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) requires 70% renewable energy (RE) in 2030 and zero-emission electricity by 2040. However, four years after the passage of the CLCPA, the state is far away from achieving its 2030 goal: as of 2023, less than 30% of electricity generation in NY came from renewable energy assets.
In this context, this analysis examines four scenarios across two variables – energy demand and interconnection success rates – to project the expected RE deployment from independent power producers (IPPs) by 2030 and compare it to the RE target so as to estimate the potential gap in RE development. The results of the analysis suggest that NY will fall short of its 70% RE by 2030 goal under current approaches to RE deployment, with a 14,642 GWh gap (reaching 61% RE) in the most optimistic scenario and 41,441 GWh gap (reaching 45% RE) in the most pessimistic scenario.
Considering this potential gap and to ensure that the state meets its RE goals, public sector entities must play a more proactive role in RE deployment beyond market development and support for private sector project development. The passage of the Build Public Renewables Act in 2023 is a significant step towards this vision by empowering and requiring the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to build, own, and operate RE generation projects to ensure the state deploys enough RE to meet its CLCPA goals. As the largest state power organization in the country and already operating NY’s hydropower facilities and over 1,400 circuit miles of transmission lines, NYPA is well positioned to serve as the state’s premier public developer of RE. Nevertheless, NYPA, as well as other potential public developers of RE in NY, will need to overcome certain challenges to their ability to deploy RE projects. As such, collaborative efforts between state agencies, communities, and industry partners will be essential to navigate these challenges and ensure the realization of NY’s clean energy goals in a just and equitable manner.
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